OPEC Forecasts Balanced Oil Market
by 2026, Revising Earlier Deficit Outlook

London, 12 Nov (ONA) — Global oil
supply will match demand in 2026 in a reflection of the wider OPEC+ group’s
production increases and higher supply from other producers, an OPEC report
showed today, marking a further shift from its earlier projections of a supply
deficit.

The OPEC+ group comprising the
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other allies
plans to pause production hikes in the first quarter of 2026 after widespread
predictions of oversupply.

In a monthly report today, OPEC said
the global economy’s growth trend remained firm and it maintained its forecasts
for global oil demand to rise by 1.3 million barrels per day this year (2025) and
at a slightly faster rate in 2026.

“The global economy has
remained resilient through 2025, supported by easing trade uncertainty since
the summer,” OPEC said in the report.

OPEC’s demand forecasts are at the
higher end of industry estimates, such as those from the International Energy
Agency. OPEC’s outlook had also implied a supply deficit in 2026, in contrast
to the IEA and many analysts.

A large deficit gives a more
comfortable backdrop for OPEC+ to proceed with its plan to pump more barrels to
regain market share. But today’s report showed the gap between OPEC and other
forecasters is narrowing.

OPEC said in the report that OPEC+
cut output by 73,000 bpd to 43.02 million bpd in October despite the output
increase agreement for the month, led by a drop in Kazakhstan.

Expected demand for OPEC+ crude at
43.0 million bpd in 2026 implies that the market will show a marginal surplus
of 20,000 bpd if the wider group keeps pumping at October’s rate.

OPEC lowered its forecast for 2026
demand for OPEC+ crude by 100,000 bpd from the previous projection after an
upward revision to its 2025 estimates for production outside OPEC+.

Last month’s report had projected a
deficit of 50,000 bpd, and the September report pointed to a shortfall of
700,000 bpd.

The IEA’s latest forecasts imply
that supply could exceed demand by about 4 million bpd in 2026, equal to almost
4% of global demand. The agency, which advises industrialised countries, is
scheduled to update its forecasts tomorrow (Thursday).

— Ends/Khalid