Washington, October 13 (QNA) – The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that the global economy will maintain real GDP growth exceeding 3% this year, as robust investment in artificial intelligence offsets the energy shock resulting from the situation in the Middle East.
However, the IMF warned that the downside risks are mounting and more countries are being left behind and vulnerable to rising debt loads.
Despite oil prices remaining above $100 a barrel, the IMF is forecasting 2026 global growth at 3.1%, a slight uptick from the 3.0% it predicted in July.
The World Economic Outlook forecast, released as global economic and finance leaders gather in Bangkok for the IMF and World Bank annual meetings, is about even with the most optimistic scenario issued in April, but below 2025 global growth of 3.5%.
For 2027, the IMF predicts 3.4% global growth, flat with the July forecast and up 0.2 percentage point from April. The slight improvement is largely due to continued strong investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure, prompting growth upgrades for key advanced economies building AI platforms and especially for countries supplying AI hardware, including South Korea, Malaysia, Mexico and Thailand, which is hosting the meetings this week.
Downward growth revisions have become more widespread, with the IMF downgrading 47% of economies since the April forecasts were issued, including several energy importers outside AI value chains.
Among major economies, the IMF forecast US growth of 2.3% for both 2026 and 2027, unchanged for this year and 0.1 percentage point higher for next year. The US economy is expected to be supported by robust private consumption, tax cuts and AI investment, though the boost from AI will be offset by its large import content.
Among major economies, the IMF projects US economic growth to reach 2.3 percent in both 2026 and 2027”unchanged from this year’s forecast but 0.1 percentage point higher than the projection for next year. The IMF assumes an average oil price of $96 per barrel for 2026 and $87 in 2027.
But under an adverse scenario highlighted in the report, in which a worsening war pushes oil prices to $130 per barrel through the first quarter of 2027, growth would be reduced by 0.2 percentage point in 2026 and 0.5 percentage point in 2027. Inflation in 2027 would surge by another 1.1 percentage point to 5.2%. (QNA)