AMMAN, Oct. 13 (Petra) – The International Monetary Fund (IMF)
projects Jordan’s real GDP growth to accelerate to 3.1 percent by
2027, up from a projected 2.7 percent for the current year,
underscoring the macroeconomic resilience of the national economy in
navigating regional shocks and global supply-chain disruptions.

According to the World Economic Outlook report released Tuesday, the
Fund revised its 2026 growth projection for Jordan to 2.7
percent–compared to 2.8 percent in 2025–before anticipating a
0.4-percent expansion in economic momentum the following year.

The projections coincide with Department of Statistics (DoS) figures
showing real GDP grew by 3.0 percent in Q2 2026, outpacing the 2.8
percent recorded in the corresponding period last year. Growth was
spearheaded by key productive verticals, notably agriculture (7.8
percent), manufacturing (6.2 percent), and utilities/electricity (5.0
percent).

On the monetary front, the IMF forecasts headline inflation to
average 2.5 percent this year, up from 1.8 percent in 2025, before
moderating to 2.3 percent in 2027. Official domestic figures peg
year-to-date inflation at 2.26 percent through September, driven
primarily by upward adjustments in transportation and housing
rentals.

Externally, the Fund projects the current account deficit to widen to
7.5 percent of GDP in 2026, compared to 5.6 percent last year, before
narrowing to 5.7 percent by 2027. This widening reflects acute
external sector pressures facing energy-importing economies amid
ongoing Middle Eastern conflict, maritime trade bottlenecks, and
elevated energy input costs.

Regionally, the IMF projects the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)
economy to contract by 2.0 percent this year, prior to staging a
robust recovery of 7.0 percent growth in 2027. Import-intensive
emerging markets in the region, including Jordan, are projected to
maintain steady growth at 4.7 percent across both the current and
coming years.

The report highlighted that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has
triggered a systemic shock across global commodity and energy
markets, halting transit through a vital chokepoint that previously
moved roughly 20 million barrels per day.

Consequently, the IMF baseline assumes oil prices will average USD
95.74 per barrel in 2026 before easing to USD 87.39 per barrel in
2027, contingent upon the phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz by
March and normalized maritime throughput by October of next year.

The Fund cautioned that protracted geopolitical escalation risks
compounding stagflationary pressures–prolonging energy and food price
volatility and straining external balances across net energy
importers. Globally, the IMF projects world output to expand by 3.1
percent this year, rising to 3.4 percent in 2027, buoyed by resilient
energy supply channels and surging artificial intelligence (AI)
capital expenditures despite systemic geopolitical headwinds.

//Petra// AA