IMF Projects Global Economic Growth
of 3.1 Percent in 2026 and 3.4 Percent in 2027

Bangkok, 13 Oct 2026 (ONA) — The
International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected global economic growth of 3.1
percent during 2026, compared with its July estimates of 3 percent, despite the
ongoing conflict in the Middle East and rising energy costs, and at a rate
lower than the growth recorded last year of 3.5 percent.

This came in the World Economic
Outlook report issued today, coinciding with the annual meetings of the Fund
and the World Bank being held in the Thai capital, Bangkok.

The Fund projected global economic
growth of 3.4 percent during 2027, unchanged from July estimates and up 0.2
percentage points compared with the forecasts issued last April.

It attributed the slight improvement
in growth forecasts to continued strong investments in artificial intelligence
infrastructure, which helped offset part of the negative effects of rising
energy prices and drove an improvement in growth estimates for a number of
advanced economies and countries participating in technology production chains.

It noted that South Korea, Malaysia,
Mexico and Thailand have benefited from rising demand for devices and
components used in developing artificial intelligence technologies, alongside
advanced economies that develop platforms and infrastructure for this
technology.

It also noted the widening gap
between economies benefiting from artificial intelligence investments and
countries that have not benefited from this boom, as only 32 countries have
come to contribute about 95 percent of global economic growth, compared with 54
countries in April estimates.

It explained that downward revisions
to growth forecasts “have become more widespread,” having lowered its
estimates for about 47 percent of economies since the April forecasts were
issued, including a number of energy-importing countries that do not
participate in value chains linked to artificial intelligence.

With regard to global inflation, the
Fund projected that the headline consumer price rate will reach 4.7 percent
during 2026 before declining to 4.1 percent in 2027, with upward pressures on
prices linked to the investment boom in artificial intelligence persisting.

On the public finance file, it
warned that rising levels of public debt, particularly in advanced economies,
increase the risks of sharp jumps in borrowing costs and threaten to weaken
economic growth amid continued financial and geopolitical volatility.

The IMF called on governments to
“not postpone the necessary measures to rebuild reserves and fiscal
buffers that enable them to confront future crises, while putting in place
credible medium-term plans to return public debt to sustainable levels.”

— Ends/Khalid